"The Road the Hell is paved with good intentions" - St Bernard.
It is the season of politics here in Delhi, and I too was asked by a couple of kids for my views on AAP and Delhi elections. So let me have some fun and share my thoughts on the matter at hand through this post.
Delhi has usually been a two-way contest between the main national parties: Congress and BJP, both with well established lineage and agendas. This time however, I am rather drawn to understand the curiosity called AAP, which has caught the imagination of great many of educated Delhiites. What started of as a middle class movement for probity and corruption free governance has transformed itself into a political party mostly on a anti-corruption plank. Although they don't seem to have a comprehensive agenda as yet, and don't seem to have the organizational wherewithal to create such an agenda a priori, it behooves us to anticipate the kind of dispensation an entity like AAP will evolve into eventually, when faced with the practical tasks of administration and policy making. And since they haven't claimed that they
would renounce politics and go back to their NGO ways once they have
created Lokpal, or any other required anti-corruption mechanisms, the
assumption is that they have long term ambitions of governing which
would in due time encompass aspects of governance beyond anti-corruption watchdogs.
The only information I have been able to gather is through various televised speeches and interviews of Mr Arvind Kejriwal and associates. Besides this there is some published material in form of a 70 page called booklet called Swaraj written by Mr Kejriwal.
- “The love of the intellectual Indian for the village community is of course infinite, if not pathetic….What is a village but a sink of localism, a den of ignorance, narrow mindedness and communalism?” - BR Ambedkar
The name itself somehow reminds us of Mahatma Gandhi's first book, "Hind Swaraj". The content enhances the likeness by dwelling primarily upon decentralization of idealized "village republics", as did Gandhi's original book, but in a more modern setting with more specific policy suggestions. This decentralization and village autonomy theme is punctuated by standard exposition on how foreign companies, politicians and criminals have exploited the country's wealth in time honored swadeshi tradition. It must be acknowledged that the book suggests a person with intimate knowledge of many administrative issues faced by village people. These issues that would have only be know by direct interaction and deep involvement.
But neither the book or any of the interviews dwell on anything beyond the theme of decentralization of finances and anti-corruption and suggest a lack of overarching sense of history or political economy. So while I have no reason to reason to doubt either the intent or sincerity of the people, nor the understanding of many problems faced in Indian villages, the important question is whether the people who have "an understanding of problem" do actually have an "understanding of solutions required".
It is well understood over past 60 years that poverty alleviation and development were the first and primary goal of India's policymakers, and rightly so. But like the point I make before, even though the problems were well understood, the wrong solutions have been repeatedly applied over past so many decadecs. So while South Korea, which was poor country similar in development to India in 1950s, has grown on the become a developed country with high HDI and per-capita income of $33K, India lags badly with abysmal quality of life only matched with sub-saharan africa, and per-capita income of $3.9K (approximately one eighth of S. Korea). While most Indian still live in abject poverty, South Korea is well on the way to be a developed country. Why? And though some may like to claim "corruption" as cause, the answer is mostly no!
Whatever the ceaseless mythologizing of past we would like indulge in, grinding poverty has always been part of human condition for the majority of populace in all cultures in pre-industrial age. Industrial revolution starting in 1820s in England and a few decades later in United States and Germany, improved the means of production and pulled millions of subsistence farmers into middle-class workforce. In every country in past 200 years, Industrialization has followed the identical pattern of wealth creation and rapid urbanization, leaving only a small fraction of population employed in agriculture (whose lot has also improved). Over past few decades this has started happening at a rapid pace in China and other East asian countries as well. Whatever the virtue of Mr Kejriwals financial decentralization schemes and romanticism for village financial autonomy of the past, India would also have to follow the same path. With a disdain for sound economics , which Mr Kejriwal says is "irrelevant" to common man ("aam aadmi"), AAP may eventually put India into the same trap which it has been trying to extricate itself since 1990s.
Whatever the ceaseless mythologizing of past we would like indulge in, grinding poverty has always been part of human condition for the majority of populace in all cultures in pre-industrial age. Industrial revolution starting in 1820s in England and a few decades later in United States and Germany, improved the means of production and pulled millions of subsistence farmers into middle-class workforce. In every country in past 200 years, Industrialization has followed the identical pattern of wealth creation and rapid urbanization, leaving only a small fraction of population employed in agriculture (whose lot has also improved). Over past few decades this has started happening at a rapid pace in China and other East asian countries as well. Whatever the virtue of Mr Kejriwals financial decentralization schemes and romanticism for village financial autonomy of the past, India would also have to follow the same path. With a disdain for sound economics , which Mr Kejriwal says is "irrelevant" to common man ("aam aadmi"), AAP may eventually put India into the same trap which it has been trying to extricate itself since 1990s.
"Brooms can remove dust. To remove corruption you need brains" - Taslima Nasreen on Twitter.
Since AAP solution to any question, as far ranging from employment to foreign policy is the "open sesame" of anti-corruption, a be-all and end-all of all affairs, let us first go into further detail of their handling of their favorite topic. AAP has either through ignorance or for the explicit purpose of appearing more appealing to voters, imbued the issue of "corruption" primarily with a "personal morality" spin. This gesturing, besides evoking a connection with "religious" morality, has also helps them attract vote as the lone "imandaar party". This is not only disingenuous and exploitative, but also misleading. Even though personal morality of the top leadership is of substantial importance, corruption is mostly an outcome of regulatory and policy mechanisms and not a sole function of "personal integrity", which Mr Kejriwal, by the virtue of being sole "imandaar" politician will sweep clean with the flick of his broom. A lot of extant corruption has been removed by liberalization process and it can be further diminished by reducing the discretionary powers available with government officials and politicians and setting up of independent regulation where required. To over-emphasize "personal integrity" is to miss the wood for the trees. Mr Kejriwal and party, by taking anti-market stances on prices of commodities and other issues may actually end up encouraging corruption and pilferage, in spite of high personal moral principles. As a sample witness the rebirth of gold smuggling after recent policy change.
Besides, this AAP has not shown itself above deliberate misrepresentation and sometimes outright lying when it has suited the purpose. While all this may not be totally out of place given the political context, and given that national parties regularly indulge in such stratagem, AAPs willingness to morally "flexible" on many issues, at this early stage of their growth portends badly for the future. Their so called hit-and-run tactics, lacking either proof or follow-up, also sometimes indicate a greater interest in eyeball grabbing, rather than genuine desire of accomplishing anything of value.
On a positive note, I think that most of the people in AAP are personally honest, which though only part of the story is a very important part. Their intent and idealism, to all appearance is also genuine. Also I expect that if voted to power, AAP will show their dynamism and new ideas that they have shown during their election campaign and during IAC movement. And without the well-entrenched interests in status-quo of the national parties, they may be able to kick start long pending political and administrative reforms that national parties have been unwilling to push forth. Also since Delhi is not a full-state, their freedom in policy making will anyway be more circumscribed, and their capacity for creating mischief less. So, I expect popular satisfaction with them, at-least for first few years if and when they are voted to power. Lastly their strong stand on anti-corruption and the support they have garnered has also made the bigger parties come out of their comfort zone and take some tough decisions. However I fear the lack of interest or understanding in fundamental problems facing Indian economy, a lack of sense of history and the tendency to compromise on fundamental principles at the very outset may make them go the same old way of lost opportunities. Wishing them well for their political journey. Or maybe not :-)
Besides, this AAP has not shown itself above deliberate misrepresentation and sometimes outright lying when it has suited the purpose. While all this may not be totally out of place given the political context, and given that national parties regularly indulge in such stratagem, AAPs willingness to morally "flexible" on many issues, at this early stage of their growth portends badly for the future. Their so called hit-and-run tactics, lacking either proof or follow-up, also sometimes indicate a greater interest in eyeball grabbing, rather than genuine desire of accomplishing anything of value.
On a positive note, I think that most of the people in AAP are personally honest, which though only part of the story is a very important part. Their intent and idealism, to all appearance is also genuine. Also I expect that if voted to power, AAP will show their dynamism and new ideas that they have shown during their election campaign and during IAC movement. And without the well-entrenched interests in status-quo of the national parties, they may be able to kick start long pending political and administrative reforms that national parties have been unwilling to push forth. Also since Delhi is not a full-state, their freedom in policy making will anyway be more circumscribed, and their capacity for creating mischief less. So, I expect popular satisfaction with them, at-least for first few years if and when they are voted to power. Lastly their strong stand on anti-corruption and the support they have garnered has also made the bigger parties come out of their comfort zone and take some tough decisions. However I fear the lack of interest or understanding in fundamental problems facing Indian economy, a lack of sense of history and the tendency to compromise on fundamental principles at the very outset may make them go the same old way of lost opportunities. Wishing them well for their political journey. Or maybe not :-)
